Toronto, April 10, 2026 — The Canadian dollar edged lower against the US dollar on Friday as investors reacted to modest employment data and ongoing global uncertainty, though it still recorded a solid weekly gain.
The currency slipped about 0.1% on the day, trading near 1.38 per U.S. dollar. Despite the dip, it remained up roughly 0.8% for the week—its strongest weekly performance since January.
Job Growth Meets Expectations
Canada’s labor market showed limited improvement in March, with the economy adding around 14,100 jobs. This followed a significant loss of more than 80,000 positions in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%.
While the figures met expectations, analysts described the overall pace of growth as subdued, pointing to ongoing economic challenges.
Growth Concerns and Trade Uncertainty
Market analysts noted that weak economic momentum early in the year, combined with trade-related uncertainties, continues to weigh on the Canadian dollar.
Attention is also turning to the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which has played a key role in protecting Canadian exports from tariffs. The review deadline is set for July 1, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors.
Oil Prices Provide Limited Support
Oil prices, a major driver of Canada’s export economy, rose slightly on Friday, climbing close to $99 per barrel. The increase was linked to concerns over supply disruptions in key producing regions and limited flows through critical shipping routes.
However, oil remained on track for a weekly decline, limiting its positive impact on the Canadian currency.
Global Factors in Focus
Investor sentiment was also influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly ongoing discussions involving the United States and Iran. Earlier optimism around a ceasefire had reduced demand for safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, helping support the Canadian currency earlier in the week.
Interest Rate Outlook
Financial markets continue to expect modest interest rate tightening from the Bank of Canada later this year. Current pricing suggests limited changes compared to earlier expectations.
Meanwhile, Canadian government bond yields showed mixed movement, with the 10-year yield rising slightly.
Outlook Remains Cautious
Despite short-term fluctuations, analysts believe the Canadian dollar could strengthen later in the year if economic growth improves and external pressures ease.
For now, the currency remains influenced by a combination of domestic economic data, oil market trends, and global geopolitical developments.
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