A United Nations trade agency has warned that fertiliser shortages caused by the ongoing Iran war are becoming a serious concern for developing countries.
International Trade Centre (ITC) said the disruption is likely to affect food production more than oil and gas markets, creating risks for global food security.
The agency’s executive director Pamela Coke-Hamilton said fertiliser supply problems are more urgent because they directly impact farming and harvests.
She explained that even if oil and gas prices rise, countries can often find alternative suppliers. However, fertiliser shortages are harder to replace quickly.
Key Routes and Supply Disruptions
The ITC said a large share of global urea fertiliser normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway affected by the conflict.
Disruption in this route is causing concerns about availability, especially for countries that depend heavily on imported fertiliser.
The agency warned that missing planting and harvesting timelines could reduce crop yields and increase food insecurity in vulnerable regions.
Developing Countries Most Affected
According to the ITC, countries in Asia and Africa are among the most exposed, including Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Thailand, and Sri Lanka.
These countries rely heavily on nitrogen-based fertilisers from Gulf producers, making them more vulnerable to supply shortages and price shocks.
The report added that Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia could face the biggest impact due to dependence on rainfall and limited farming windows.
Possible Alternative Suppliers
The ITC said some countries could help reduce the shortage by increasing exports, especially in North Africa.
Egypt and Algeria were highlighted as potential alternative suppliers with significant untapped export capacity.
However, the agency warned that global relief may be limited in the short term due to production and logistics constraints.
Limited Economic Gains
Some developing countries may benefit slightly from higher oil and gas prices, including Nigeria, Brazil, Angola, and Libya.
But the ITC said these gains would be limited because most of these countries still depend on imports of refined energy products.
Overall, the agency warned that fertiliser shortages remain a bigger and more immediate risk than energy price increases, especially for food security in poorer regions.
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