Scottish clubs have struggled in European competitions in recent seasons, but developments in Greece over the weekend could help one of the three potential Scottish Premiership champions next season.
Due to a decline in Scotland’s UEFA coefficient, both Celtic and Rangers had to start this season’s Champions League from the qualifying rounds — and both were eliminated, moving into the Europa League. Next season will see a similar scenario as Hearts, Rangers, and Celtic compete for the title and the remaining Champions League qualifying spot.
If Hearts, currently one point ahead of Rangers, or Celtic finish as champions, they would enter the Champions League at the play-off round. However, if Rangers win the league, they could qualify directly for the group stage — thanks to events in Greece involving Olympiakos and AEK Athens.
Since 2024, UEFA’s “title-holder rebalancing” rule allows the domestic champion with the highest coefficient among qualifying teams to enter the league phase directly if the Champions League winner has already qualified domestically. Last season, Olympiakos benefited from this, as Paris Saint-Germain had already qualified.
Olympiakos’ recent 1-0 home defeat to AEK Athens has left them five points behind in the Greek Super League play-offs, and statisticians estimate only a 16% chance of them reclaiming the title. With Olympiakos unlikely to win, Rangers — currently 37th in UEFA club coefficients — are next in line for direct entry, while Celtic (58th) and Hearts (154th) would not benefit.
A direct spot in the Champions League would help Scotland’s overall coefficient, which has suffered due to poor European performances. Celtic finished 21st and Rangers 32nd in their respective European campaigns this season, while Aberdeen, Hibernian, and Dundee United struggled in qualifiers or failed to reach the group stages.
Next season, Scotland will drop to just one Champions League place, and the country’s overall allocation in UEFA competitions will decrease from five to four teams, with clubs entering at earlier rounds. For Rangers, a direct group-stage berth could provide an important opportunity to improve Scotland’s standing in Europe.
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