Recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian industrial sites are starting to affect the global fertiliser market, according to Andrei Melnichenko, the founder of EuroChem. He বলেছেন that these attacks are creating serious challenges for Russia’s nitrogen fertiliser production and could have wider effects on global food supply.
Speaking at an event in Moscow, Melnichenko explained that repeated drone strikes on fertiliser plants have damaged infrastructure and reduced output. Russia is one of the world’s largest fertiliser exporters, responsible for around 20% of global trade. Any disruption to its production can quickly impact international markets.
One of the most serious incidents happened in February, when a major fertiliser plant in Dorogobuzh was hit by a drone strike. The facility, owned by Russian producer Acron, is one of the country’s largest. The attack caused fatalities and forced the plant to shut down temporarily, cutting about 5% of Russia’s total fertiliser production capacity.
This plant plays an important role in producing ammonium nitrate and NPK fertilisers, which are widely used in agriculture. These fertilisers contain key nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium that are essential for crop growth. The shutdown has raised concerns about supply shortages, especially during critical farming periods.
In addition to the attacks, global fertiliser trade is also being affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a key route for transporting fertilisers and raw materials, especially from the Middle East. A blockade or reduced activity in this region can impact nearly one-third of global fertiliser trade.
Melnichenko pointed out that nitrogen fertilisers are the most affected. This is because their production depends heavily on natural gas, much of which comes from regions around the Persian Gulf. When supply routes are disrupted, production costs rise and output may fall.
Prices for fertilisers have already started to increase as a result of these combined pressures. Higher prices can lead to increased costs for farmers, which may eventually affect food prices worldwide. This raises concerns about global food security, especially in countries that rely heavily on imported fertilisers.
However, not all types of fertilisers are equally affected. According to Melnichenko, potash trade has remained relatively stable despite the ongoing disruptions. On the other hand, phosphate markets experienced temporary problems, but producers in the Middle East are quickly adapting by using alternative ports outside the Gulf region.
He noted that Middle Eastern producers are adjusting their logistics faster than Russia did when it faced Western sanctions in the past. After sanctions were introduced, Russian companies took several months to shift their export routes from European ports to domestic ones. In comparison, current adjustments in the Middle East are happening more rapidly.
Russia has also taken steps to manage its domestic supply. In March, the government announced a temporary halt on ammonium nitrate exports for one month. This move was aimed at stabilizing the local market and ensuring enough supply for domestic use.
Despite these challenges, Russia remains a dominant player in the fertiliser market. It controls up to 40% of global ammonium nitrate trade, making it a key supplier for many countries. However, continued disruptions from attacks and logistical issues could limit its ability to maintain this position.
The situation highlights how geopolitical conflicts can have far-reaching effects beyond immediate battle zones. In this case, the combination of military activity and trade disruptions is impacting a critical sector that supports global agriculture.
If the attacks continue and supply routes remain unstable, the pressure on fertiliser markets could increase further. This may lead to higher costs for farmers, reduced crop yields, and ultimately higher food prices around the world.
For now, industry leaders like Melnichenko are warning that the situation needs close attention. The balance between supply, demand, and logistics in the fertiliser market is becoming increasingly fragile, and any further disruptions could have serious global consequences.
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