Jet fuel prices have surged dramatically in recent months, far outpacing increases in gasoline or diesel, yet airfares have so far risen only modestly. That balance is expected to shift in the coming months, as airlines respond to higher operating costs.
“Summer travel prices are already increasing because of fuel costs,” said Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel booking platform Hopper. “Domestic trips this summer are roughly 10% more expensive due to higher fuel expenses.”
Beyond Ticket Prices
Airlines are also passing costs onto travelers through higher fees and fewer discounted flights. However, fares cannot simply reflect fuel costs alone. Prices are largely determined by seat availability and demand.
“The more they raise fares, the fewer people will fly, and some will choose to drive instead,” said Zach Griff, author of the airline newsletter From the Tray Table.
Fuel accounts for 20% to 30% of an airline’s total expenses, second only to labor. Delta Air Lines reported fuel costs were $400 million higher in March than a year earlier. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned employees that sustained fuel prices could cost the airline an additional $11 billion in 2026—more than double the company’s best annual profit of under $5 billion.
Covering the increase through fares alone would require a 20% jump, which would significantly reduce demand. Instead, airlines are seeking alternative ways to offset costs.
Fees and Capacity Cuts
United recently raised its baggage fees by $10 for the first and second checked bags and $50 for the third. JetBlue followed with a similar $10 increase for most checked bags. Other carriers are expected to implement comparable fee hikes.
Airlines are also trimming less profitable flights. United plans to cut about 5% of its flight capacity over the next six months, including popular summer routes. The reductions target lower-fare flights such as overnight “redeyes” and midweek departures. Griff noted that these cuts reduce traveler options and push fares higher.
Strong Demand Gives Airlines Pricing Power
Despite rising costs, demand for air travel remains strong. Airlines have reported record bookings over the past month. Rising gasoline prices, which recently topped $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, may also encourage travelers to fly rather than drive long distances.
Delta CEO Ed Bastian highlighted that several of the company’s best sales days occurred after the Iran conflict began, giving airlines room to recapture some of the fuel cost increases. Historical patterns show that fare adjustments typically take two to three months to fully materialize following a spike in fuel prices.
Even if fuel prices ease, Griff cautioned that airfares may not decline immediately. Strong demand could sustain higher ticket prices, meaning passengers may continue paying more for flights even after costs stabilize.
“Once fares are raised, they don’t drop as quickly,” he said.
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