São Paulo, April 11, 2026 — A new opinion poll indicates a tight race between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round showdown in Brazil’s upcoming general election.
According to the survey conducted by Datafolha, Flavio Bolsonaro has edged slightly ahead with 46% support, while Lula follows closely at 45%. However, the difference falls within the poll’s margin of error, meaning both candidates remain statistically tied.
Race Tightens Ahead of Elections
The latest figures reflect a significant shift in the political landscape. Earlier polling in March had shown Lula with a clearer advantage, but that lead has gradually narrowed in recent weeks.
This is the first time Flavio Bolsonaro has numerically surpassed Lula in a Datafolha poll, though analysts caution that the race remains too close to call.
Bolsonaro Gains Momentum
Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has gained traction following his father’s public endorsement late last year.
The former president, who is currently under house arrest over allegations related to a coup plot, continues to hold influence among conservative voters, boosting his son’s campaign.
First-Round Dynamics
In first-round voting scenarios, Lula still leads when voters are asked open-ended questions. However, when presented with a list of candidates, the two contenders are effectively tied, signaling growing competition.
Lula, now 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term, while Flavio Bolsonaro is positioning himself as a key challenger backed by his father’s political base.
Poll Details
The Datafolha survey interviewed 2,004 voters across 137 municipalities between Tuesday and Thursday. The margin of error is approximately two percentage points.
Outlook
With months remaining before the October elections, analysts say the race could shift further as campaigns intensify. The close polling suggests Brazil may be heading toward a highly competitive and unpredictable runoff.
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